Using Decision Tools Suite to Estimate the Probability of the Introduction of Bactrocera correcta (Bezzi) Into China via Imported Host Fruit

摘要

The guava fruit fly, Bactrocera correcta (Bezzi) (Diptera: Tephritidae), originates from the tropical and subtropical regions of Asia and affects a large variety of fruits. It is regarded as a dangerous fruit fly and is regulated by quarantine measures in China. This study assessed the introduction risk of the guava fruit fly associated with the importation of host fruit into China. The risk assessment based on historical data, expert opinions, relevant literature and archives was used to determine appropriate parameters in the pathway analysis. With a computational model, Monte Carlo simulations were conducted using Decision Tools Suite 5.5 Industrial Edition to estimate the probability of the introduction of the guava fruit fly. Risk management options were incorporated and risk analysis was performed to determine how the risk could be reduced. The study indicated the probability of introduction into China of the guava fruit fly via imported host fruit with current quarantine measures is very low at 1.06E-12. In contrast, the probability is high at 0.1049 without entry detection. Sensitivity analysis was performed to assess the model stability and the impact of parameter changes. Based on the sensitivity analysis, the most critical input was entry detection, followed by mitigation treatment and the number of guava fruit flies per ton of infested host fruit, respectively. We concluded that intensive detection in conjunction with maintaining mitigation treatment would significantly reduce the risk of introduction.