Critical size events: a new tool for crisis management resource allocation?

摘要

To accommodate future growth and economic development, various autonomous developments take place simultaneously in the Netherlands. On one hand, regional economical development focuses on spatial planning, characterized by concepts such as compact cities, transportation corridors and multifunctional use of limited space, including underground infrastructure. On the other hand, developments in the transportation area are addressed from an European perspective, including Trans European networks, High Speed lines, dedicated freight lines, open railway markets, innovative technology and interoperability requirements. In the Netherlands, both developments have become inseparably interwoven because they have to be realized in already densely inhabited and industrialized areas. Safety consequences are involved which may manifest themselves as major events due to inherent deficiencies in the systems. The nature and extent of potential events as well as the probabilistic nature of risk decision making do not take into account specific needs and requirements of the rescue and emergency management sector. New instruments are developed for this sector to cope with requirements of a transition towards a regional crisis and emergency management force with explicit performance standards. To this purpose, a Critical Size Event for contingency planning and crisis management is introduced, similar to the concept of a Maximum Credible Accident in the process industry. A broad-brush outline of the instrument is given and the potential for further development of the concept is discussed.