Estimation of air traffic longitudinal conflict probability based on the reaction time of controllers

摘要

To estimate air traffic longitudinal conflict probability influenced by human factors, an analytic model considering the reaction time of controllers is proposed. In the model, the decelerating process of two close flights is described, and the reaction time of controllers is considered a stochastic variable. Then one hundred data of the controller reaction time are collected and analysed. Maximum likelihood estimate is used for parameter estimation. The Anderson-Darling Goodness of Fit test is used for significance test. The results show that the reaction time of controllers fits lognormal distribution at levels of significance 0.05, 0.025, 0.01 and 0.005 respectively. Case study is then performed to certify the rationality of the model, and the impact of the controller reaction time on air traffic longitudinal conflict probability is shown.