POLAND

摘要

Real GDP growth is projected to increase from around 3% in 2016 to 3% per cent in 2017. Rising employment and wages, higher social transfers and low energy prices will support faster consumption growth. Easy credit conditions, and a pick-up in infrastructure investment supported by EU funds in 2017, will also underpin stronger investment. Consumer price inflation is projected to gradually rise, as energy prices stabilise and the labour market tightens. The central bank should start increasing interest rates as robust growth absorbs the remaining economic slack and price pressures emerge in late 2017. Additional fiscal consolidation would help finance new social spending and investment in infrastructure and skills over the longer term. Enhancing employment incentives for women and older workers, as well as increasing green taxes, would raise fiscal revenues, with positive effects on potential growth and environmental outcomes.