LITHUANIA

摘要

GDP growth is projected to gain momentum in 2016 and 2017, thanks to a recovery in key export markets. Domestic investment will accelerate as confidence strengthens and real interest rates stay low. At the same time, improving labour market conditions and high real wage growth should support private consumption and put pressure on inflation. The government's fiscal stance is set to be broadly neutral in 2016 before becoming contractionary in 2017, which is appropriate given the projected path of demand. Inequality and poverty rates are elevated and necessitate in-work benefits for second earners of large families and social assistance recipients who are currently not eligible. Environmental taxation, such as levies on motor and heating fuels, should be used to meet spending needs and to tackle relatively high greenhouse gas emissions intensity.