DEVELOPMENTS IN INDIVIDUAL OECD COUNTRIES AND SELECTED NON-MEMBER ECONOMIES

摘要

Output growth is projected to dip to 2% per cent in 2015 but recover to 3% in 2016. Declining business investment will be countered by gathering momentum in consumption and exports. Growth at the projected pace will be enough to lower the unemployment rate, although consumer price inflation will remain moderate due to economic slack. Fiscal policy should continue to aim for a budget surplus by the early 2020s but, given economic uncertainties, it should avoid heavy front loading. Short of negative surprises, withdrawal of monetary stimulus should start in the second quarter of 2015. The booming housing market and mortgage lending will require continued close attention by the authorities. There is room for both fiscal and monetary policy to provide support in the event of unexpected negative economic shocks.