DEVELOPMENTS IN INDIVIDUAL OECD COUNTRIES AND SELECTED NON-MEMBER ECONOMIES

摘要

Growth is projected to dip to 2 1/4 per cent in 2015 but pick up to nearly 3% in 2016. Gathering momentum in consumption, non-resource investment and exports help the economy adjust and recover from the fall in commodity prices and unwinding resource-sector investment. Consumer price inflation has been dented by lower oil prices and will remain moderate due to economic slack. Monetary policy firepower should be held in reserve given uncertainties about the outlook and the downside aspects of rate cuts on the booming housing and credit markets. Fiscal policy should continue to provide support if needed through the operation of automatic stabilisers. Structural reform should facilitate post-resource-boom adjustment, in particular, further shift towards indirect taxes. The unwinding of resource-sector investment reflects large-scale projects reaching completion and easing-up of investment plans given commodity-price falls. Enhancing the climate for business investment in non-commodity sectors requires maintaining sound macroeconomic policies, further tax reform, cuts to red tape and competition-boosting measures. Plans to boost investment in public infrastructure are welcome, but project selection requires rigorous cost-benefit analysis.