Early warning

摘要

The trouble with crises is that it is hard topredict which direction they will go.Concerted efforts can help reduce the riskof a deterioriation, but not guarantee it. This is in large part the role of the OECD, to further economic progressand co-operation while at the same time promoting peace andprosperity The capacity to predict crises helps political decision-makers to prevent violent conflict. But in spite of pastexperience, the international community is still unprepared todeal with new types of threats, such as terrorist acts and thecriminalisation of conflicts.