ASEAN-INDIA FREE TRADE AGREEMENT AND INDIA'S BALANCE OF TRADE IN RUBBER AND RUBBER PRODUCTS: A PRELIMINARY ASSESSMENT

摘要

This pioneering study was conceived to capture the early indicators of the outcomes of ASEAN-India Free Trade Agreement (AIFTA) in rubber and rubber products. The analysis was focused on balance of trade in raw materials, intermediate and finished product segments. In the pre-AIFTA phase, India had a positive trade balance -with world, which was on account of its advantageous trade in finished products and intermediate products with countries other than members of ASEAN. In the post-AIFTA phase, though India's favourable balance of trade in finished products registered marked improvements with ASEAN (89.5%) and world (66.5%) the increasing imports of raw materials; especially NR, has nullified India's historically inherited advantages in the external trade in finished products. A detailed analysis of the three selected products viz., (i) Technically specified natural rubber (TSNR), (ii) Thread of vulcanised rubber, not covered elsewhere and (iii) Radial tyres used in motor cars (including station wagons and racing cars) indicated negative balance of trade throughout the ten year period, except for radial tyres used in motor cars during the year 2005-06. The study highlighted the need for identifying the structural infirmities in various segments and to implement interlinked policy measures for raw material, intermediate and finished products segments.