Future waste generation forecasts on the basis of a macroeconomic model

摘要

Generation of solid waste is closely correlated to the use of tangible factor inputs and the production levels. In this paper, we present projections of waste generated in the Norwegian manufacturing industry based on key economic variables simulated by a computable general equilibrium model. Over the simulation period material input becomes relatively cheaper than labour and energy, thereby making it profitable to substitute materials for other factor inputs. This substitution effect is a general equilibrium effect mainly due to Hicks-neutral technological change at the industry level, dominating the direct material saving impact of technological progress in most production sectors. Thus, generated solid waste rises over the simulation period, both in terms of per unit produced and per capita. The analysis forecasts an increase in waste generated over the period to 2010 in the range of 45–110%, depending on the type of waste.