Variance of graphite import-export volume and price in China for 2003-2012: A time-series analysis

摘要

Graphite is one of the most important raw materials in modern industry. China contains an abundance of this resource and is the largest graphite producer, importer/exporter and consumer of high-performance graphite products worldwide. In the present paper, 416 data points depicting the monthly volume and price of graphite imports and exports in China from 2003 to the first half of 2012 were collected for analysis. A time series econometrics method was used to investigate the variance and causality relationship between the graphite import and export volumes. The results show a significant increase in China's graphite export volumes from 2003 to the first half of 2012. The graphite export volumes of the first half of 2012 were 329 thousand tons, representing a 53% increase compared to the same period in 2003. The annual average price of graphite exports has increased 43.4% in the last decade. A significant decrease in export volumes was noted most years during the two major Chinese holidays: the Chinese Spring Festival in February and National Day in October. The global financial crisis in 2008 caused a dramatic reduction in the growth rate of graphite import volumes, and the European debt crisis in 2011 caused both a decrease in import volumes and a rapid increase in export prices. The volume of graphite exports in China was more than 5.6 times higher than the volume of imports, but 52.2-138.4% of export earnings were spent on the import bill. There is a unidirectional causality relationship between graphite export volume and export price in China, but no causality relationship was found between graphite import volume and import price. The phenomena and factors identified above have implications for China's graphite industry development and graphite import and export trade. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.