A simple numerical procedure for timely prediction of precipitation-induced landslides in unsaturated pyroclastic soils

摘要

In the last 20 years, several catastrophic precipitation-induced landslides have hit villages, towns and roads in Campania (southern Italy), causing extensive damage and many fatalities. Although such phenomena have occurred since time immemorial, recent urbanisation and infrastructural development have produced a major increase in landslide risk. Due to climatic changes and further unavoidable increases in exposure, in the near future, the risk will become even greater. It is therefore high time to develop reliable criteria for landslide prediction. The paper discusses the main factors which affect the triggering of precipitation-induced landslides, highlighting the key role played by antecedent rainfalls which cannot be precisely accounted for using empirical criteria. We propose a simple 1D numerical approach able to predict the evolution of the key factors governing slope stability as a tool to predict the onset of slope failure, with potential benefits for early warning systems. The approach is calibrated through a well-documented case history.