Projecting flood hazard under climate change: an alternative approach to model chains

摘要

Flood hazard projections under climate change are typically derived by applying model chains consisting of the following elements: "emission scenario - global climate model - downscaling, possibly including bias correction - hydrological model - flood frequency analysis". To date, this approach yields very uncertain results, due to the difficulties of global and regional climate models to represent precipitation. The implementation of such model chains requires major efforts, and their complexity is high.