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Earthquake forecasting: A possible solution considering the GPS ionospheric delay

机译:地震预报:考虑GPS电离层延迟的可能解决方案

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The recent earthquakes in L'Aquila (Italy) and in Japan have dramatically emphasized the problem of natural disasters and their correct forecasting. One of the aims of the research community is to find a possible and reliable forecasting method, considering all the available technologies and tools. Starting from the recently developed research concerning this topic and considering that the number of GPS reference stations around the world is continuously increasing, this study is an attempt to investigate whether it is possible to use GPS data in order to enhance earthquake forecasting. In some cases, ionospheric activity level increases just before to an earthquake event and shows a different behaviour 5-10 days before the event, when the seismic event has a magnitude greater than 4-4.5 degrees. Considering the GPS data from the reference stations located around the L'Aquila area (Italy), an analysis of the daily variations of the ionospheric signal delay has been carried out in order to evaluate a possible correlation between seismic events and unexpected variations of ionospheric activities. Many different scenarios have been tested, in particular considering the elevation angles, the visibility lengths and the time of day (morning, afternoon or night) of the satellites. In this paper, the contribution of the ionospheric impact has been shown: a realistic correlation between ionospheric delay and earthquake can be seen about one week before the seismic event.
机译:最近在意大利拉奎拉(L'Aquila)和日本发生的地震极大地强调了自然灾害的问题及其正确的预测。研究社区的目标之一是在考虑所有可用技术和工具的情况下,找到一种可能且可靠的预测方法。从有关该主题的最新研究开始,并考虑到全球GPS参考站的数量正在不断增加,本研究旨在研究是否有可能使用GPS数据来增强地震预报。在某些情况下,电离层活动水平在地震事件发生之前增加,并且在地震事件发生前的大小大于4-4.5度时,在事件发生前5-10天显示出不同的行为。考虑到来自拉奎拉地区(意大利)周围参考站的GPS数据,已经对电离层信号延迟的每日变化进行了分析,以评估地震事件与电离层活动的意外变化之间的可能相关性。已经测试了许多不同的场景,特别是考虑了卫星的仰角,可见度长度和一天中的时间(早上,下午或晚上)。本文显示了电离层影响的贡献:在地震事件发生前约一周,可以看到电离层延迟与地震之间的现实关系。

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