Maximum Storm Surge Curve Due to Global Warming for the European North Sea Region During the 20th-21st Century

摘要

Computations of storm surges during the 20th century needs to incorporate global warming of about 0.6°C ± 0.2 °C (IPCC, 2001). In order to take this global warming into consideration, the development of all storm surges occurred during the 20th century have been analysed. The study comprises determining to what degree the storm surge curve and storm surge level depend on each other. This fact can be used to calculate a maximum storm surge curve and each single storm surge event can be summarised.The tendency of the surge and wind parameters do not show that this maximum storm surge levels in the 20th century will occur earlier than predicted, however, the global warming of 0.6°C will extend the duration of the mean storm surge curve.