TRISO fuel performance analysis: Uncertainty quantification toward optimization

摘要

Tri-structural isotropic (TRISO) fuel particles are a fuel form being considered for potential use in next -generation nuclear reactors (i.e., high-temperature gas-cooled reactors). Though the TRISO fuel manufacturing process has continually advanced in recent years, particle comparisons still reveal statistical variations and uncertainties in terms of geometric configurations and material properties. Given that the physical processes ongoing in TRISO fuel particles during reactor operation are highly correlated with each other, a small degree of uncertainty in one model may lead to significant uncertainty in another. This makes appropriate uncertainty quantification of TRISO fuel particles essential. However, one may wonder about the extent to which the current version of TRISO particles has been optimized, and whether any room remains for further improvements.This paper quantifies TRISO fuel performance model uncertainties that stem from geometric and material data. For this analysis, the BISON code was used, and the Advanced Gas Reactor (AGR)-2 experiment served as a reference case. A total of 105 calculations was performed for the uncertainty and optimization analysis, altering the geometric and material data within their uncertainty range. Lastly, the optimization potential of TRISO particles is evaluated from a fuel performance perspective.