OPERATIONAL FORECASTING OF SUPERCELL MOTION: REVIEW AND CASE STUDIES USING MULTIPLE DATASETS

摘要

The concept of anticipating supercell motion with multiple datasets in an operational setting is addressed. In addition, the most common propagation mechanisms that regulate both supercell and nonsupercell thunderstorm motion are reviewed. At minimum,supercell motion is governed by advection from the mean wind and propagation via dynamic vertical pressure effects. Therefore, one can use a hodograph to make predictions of supercell motion before thunderstorms develop, or before thunderstorms split into right- and left-moving components. This allows for better situational awareness and pathcasts of severe weather (relative to what occurs without a priori knowledge of supercell motion), especially during the early stages of a supercell's lifetime. There are several potential sources of wind data readily available across the United States, making it relatively easy to derive an ensemble of supercell motion estimates.