Technology Forecasting Survey on Postharvest Management Using Delphi Method

摘要

The study was designed to forecast and deiive future coie technologies using Delphi method for the postharvest management in Korea. The target of the survey for Delphi is confined to specialists in the area of postharvest technology Sixty-three core technologies for the future were first derived through broad survey by 12 specialist panels and Delphi survey was performed on the selected technologies based on the answers from 2.3 specialists Questions were given to each specialist groups correspondingto the selected technology in order to survey importance, realization time, level of research and development (R&D) in Korea and foremost country, leading group of R&D, effective policy, etc Realization time expected was within the year of 2010 for allthe technology. Time differences from that in developed countries were 0 year for 5%, one year for 22% and two year for 44% of technologies indicating that level of postharvest technologies in Korea were close to that in the developed countries Among the6 sub-class areas of postharvest agriculture, importance index was highest, reaching 78.4%, in the area of quality control. In contrast, technology development level was highest in the area of distribution, which was evaluated as 66.8%. Combined analysis of the importance index and the development level suggests 16 technologies which have high developing potential. More than 50% panelists preferred industry-university-research center cooperation as a desirable approach to technology development. Likewise, most preferred technology developer was industry-university cooperative. As the most basic supporting policy for technology development, expansion of research fund was ranked on the top receiving 34% positive answers. The results of the present survey could be used as a strong tool to make agriculture for core and strategic industry that has high value-added in the 21st century