Forecasting Brown Planthopper Infestation in Korea using Statistical Modelsbased on Climatic Tele-connections

摘要

A seasonal outlook for crop insect pests is most valuable when it provides accurate information for timely management decisions. In this study, we investigated probable tele-connections between climatic phenomena and pest infestations in Korea using astatistical method. A rice insect pest, brown planthopper (BPH), was selected because of its migration characteristics, which fits well with the concept of our statistical modelling - utilizing a long-term, multi-regional influence of selected climaticphenomena to predict a dominant biological event at certain time and place. Variables of the seasonal climate forecast from 10 climate models were used as a predictor, and annual infestation area for BPH as a predictand in the statistical analyses. The Moving Window Regression model showed high correlation between the national infestation trends of BPH in South Korea and selected tempo-spatial climatic variables along with its sequential migration path. Overall, the statistical models developed in thisstudy showed a promising predictability for BPH infestation in Korea, although the dynamical relationships between the infestation and selected climatic phenomena need to be further elucidated.