MACROECONOMY JULY 2009Sergey KasyanenkoEdilberto L. Segura

摘要

Although significant downside risks for Kazakhstan's outlook are still present, recent data points to the increased likelihood of economic stabilization in the second half of this year. Indeed, the consumer and producer confidence indexes have moderately improved since February (see chart 1). On top of that, high-frequency statistics on the real sector show that the economy may have already been on track for a smaller output contraction in the second quarter of 2009 compared to the beginning of the year. In particular, in April-May, fixed capital investments were up by about 25 percent yoy compared to a decline of 4.9 percent registered during the first quarter of 2009. Industry shrank by 4.7 percent yoy during the first two months of the second quarter - on par with its rate of decline during the first quarter. This means, that the downturn in industry may be losing speed.