Bioenergy potential in Germany - studies in comparison.Original Title Potenzial von Bioenergie in Deutschland - Studien im Vergleich.

摘要

In recent years there has been a multitude of scientific studies on the medium-term potential of bioenergy in the areas of heat, power and fuel generation. Beyond the general statement that the importance of bioenergy will increase in the future the results of these analyses clearly vary, particularly because of the differences in the underlying assumptions. Hence, the aim of this contribution is to compare three important studies on potential with each other, on the one hand to contribute to a better assessability of the bioenergy potential in Germany, on the other hand to indicate the importance of considering the context of the studies in the public discussion. The chosen studies are the "Pilot study 2008" by Nitsch (29), the "Material flow analysis for sustainable and energetic use of biomass" by Fritsche et al. (15) and the study "Bioenergy and decentralised energy supply" by Hauff, Haag and Zywietz (20). The comparison is carried out on the basis of the assumed resource base, the concept of sustainability, the assumptions about the economic and population development, the underlying rates of technical progress as well as the considered political framework. It can be shown that the results of the studies differ only little with regard to the biomass potential. When considering the bioenergy potential in the areas of heat, power and fuel generation, however, the results of the studies vary much more. While the biomass potential is influenced above all by the assumed resource base, the population development and the technical progress, the bioenergy potential is particularly affected by the technologies and systems used as well as by the political framework.