Evaluation and handling of individual risks and the total business total risk of an investment in a biogas plant

摘要

The agricultural press indicates that at present many biogas plant operators do not achieve their predicted net yield goals and in some cases experience economic difficulties as a result. In view of the obviously unsatisfactory risk evaluation made at the time the investment decision was taken, this paper focuses on new aspects of risk management with regard to investments in biogas plants. Theses include the evaluation of uncertainties during the investment decision and the evaluation of the total business risk of an investment in a biogas plant.The strengths and weaknesses of the methods of investment calculation are evaluated to identify risks. The significance of a dynamic beginning is highlighted and the close-to-reality method of the complete financial plan is presented. in order to represent risks completely, it is indispensable to record and consider the reciprocal effects between investment inputs resulting from the different causal connections. Based on the dynamic simulation model simulated in this way, an analysis of sensitivity is carried out to evaluate the single risks, and a Monte Carlo Simulation is conducted to represent the total business risk.With the help of this model-supported dynamic risk analysis, the single risks and the total risk of an investment in a biogas plant are examined and the influence of certain, causal factors on the result is analyzed. The analysis of sensitivity which was used indicates to an investor the different sensitivities and responsibilities of individual inputs in respect of the final result. The Monte Carlo Simulation proves that there is a risk of an imminent inability to pay and indicates probabilities for different investment results.