Mortality spatial variations in a small scale during heat waves in Lisbon - who is at risk?

摘要

Impacts of heat waves in morbidity and mortality are largely known. Climate Change is expected to increase the climate health impacts in summer while during the winter these impacts will be probably favored. The health impacts of extreme thermal events are mainly studied at a national or regional level,considering macro or mesoscale thermal features. But it can be assumed that local variations in mortality must exist, associated, in one hand, with local climatic differences, due to features such as land use and urbanization and, in other hand, with vulnerability factors, depending on demographic and socio-economic characteristics of populations. A model of hazard – vulnerability – risk was developed, to analyze the spatial variations of mortality in extreme thermal events, at the level of city district, in the Lisbon Metropolitan Area, Portugal. Small scale variation of meteorological features, in extreme thermal events, were simulated with a Regional Atmospheric Model (Brazilian Regional Atmospheric Modeling System - BRAMS) and the results were validated and calibrated using observation data from an urban network of termohigrometers placed in sites with different urban characteristics. These data along with thermal patterns data (obtained from the urban network of termohigrometers) and air quality information (ozone and PM) were then used to characterize heat stress events.The relationship between temperature and daily mortality (especially during heat wave events)at a small scale, considering vulnerability factors, is an ongoing research. Spatial variations of mortality at this scale will be characterized, the most important vulnerability factors identified and risk areas will be delimitaded.