The official target for first oil is moving in line with our view: Uganda will not produce first commercial oil by the stated government target of 2018. Indeed, the Central Bank of Uganda's April 2015 monetary policy report highlighted oil production 'might be pushed back from 2018', with the revenue forecast for the budget framework paper 2015/2016 not including any oil revenues for the next five years. This is the first time that a top government institution in Uganda has publicly raised doubt over the official 2018 target set out by the Ministry of Energy. The bank attributed the delay to the slump in oil prices and the higher costs of developing the country's waxy crude deposits, which will see investment remain limited in the foreseeable future. In addition, they highlighted that given the very early stage of infrastructural developments and the propensity for delays, production and exports are unlikely to materialise by 2018. This fits with our long–held view for first oil in Uganda by 2020 at the earliest, with risks to the forecast lying heavily to the downside.
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