F.O.Licht's World Grains Production Update-June 2013Saturday June 01 2013

摘要

Our first indicative projections for the 2013/14 (Jul/Jun for ail crops) season point to a growth of 6% in globai grains supplies, which would be a new record level, exceeding the 2011/12 result. Our data exclusively refer to wheat, barley and corn. Demand growth is seen only slightly lower which means we can expect a surplus for all three cereals. However, the global slocks-to-use ratio may improve marginally at best This is mainly due to a strong growth in global feed demand.Meanwhile, the global supply projections for 2012/13 have been raised on last month due to better than expected harvest results in the Southern Hemisphere, which were also beneficial for the global balances.South Africa's Crop Estimates Committee (CECjcutthe outlook for the 2013 corn harvest to 11.4 mln tonnes from 11.6 mln. Dry conditions earlier this year lowered the yield expectations in the North West and Free Slate provinces, CEC said.Brazil's crop agency Conab raised the outlook for the record 2013 corn harvest (2012/13 season) once more. The latest projection is for a 78.0 mln tonne output. This would be up 7% on the preceding hardest. The estimate for the first crop was raised marginally on the last outlook to 34.8 mln tonnes, up 3% on the year, wilh a lower area more than offset by an improved yield. Y/y, the area is down due to a lack of rainfall in the northeast. Forthe second crop, the so-called safrinhs. Conab increased the area with the latest projection standing at 43.2 mln tonnes, up from 42.7 mln previously estimated and up 10% on the year. The safrinha benefits from planters' preferences for earlysown soybeans in the Centre/South which make a second crop possible.