In September, LME lead prices moved up from 893.5 dollars/ton to end the month at 964 dollars/ton, while LME stocks improved significantly from 35,625 tons to 53,350 tons at month-end. The price trend has been in keeping with the prediction of the International Lead and Zinc Study Group for lead, which anticipates a 6.2 percent increase in Chinese demand this year. This, as in other metals, is seen as the main driver behind a forecast increase in global usage of refined lead of 1.6 percent to 6.9 million tons. However, lead demand in the United States and Europe is expected to remain at a similar level of 2003. Lead mine output is expected to increase marginally by 0.8 percent in 2004 to reach 3.2 million tons, with increases in Ireland, Sweden, Morocco and Peru being partially balanced by falls in Australia and the United States. Nearer home, Asian production of refined lead is expected to increase by 5.8 percent, principally due to increases in China, Kazakhstan and Saudi Arabia. The rise in Asia will, however, be balanced by declines in Australia, Europe and the United States resulting in a small overall reduction in global refined lead output of 0.4 percent to 7.0 million tons. As in 2003, net exports of refined lead metal from China to the West are expected to exceed 400,000 tons in 2004.
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