ICO TO CONDUCT STRATEGICREVIEW

摘要

The International Coffee Organization (ICO) met for its biannual Council session in Milan on September 28 - October 2. In March, when it had last met, the market was trading at nearly the same level as now but sentiment at that time was much worse. Asa reminder, in March the market was still right in the storm of an almost steady decline that had taken prices down from lofty levels of $2.25 per lb at the height of the concern over drought damage in Brazil in mid-October 2014 to as little as $1.30 half a year ago. But worse was yet to come as prices dropped even further to as little as $1.13 by the middle of September after see-sawing for a couple of months during the summer. However, prices took a noticeable turn to the upside over the past month or so as a magnificent first flowering of Brazil's 2016/17 crop in September was followed by several weeks of dry conditions, leading to renewed concern that the recovery in 2016/17 output may not be as big as first thought. Of course, follow-up rains tothe flowering are crucial to enable the flowers to set on the trees and do not simply fall to the ground. However, there are still several rounds of the flowering season to come until December and the extent of losses, if there are any, will not be known by then. The weather in coming weeks will therefore be crucial in determining whether the recent gains can be sustained.