Grain prices have steadied in recent weeks after their long drop amid further signs that 2015/16 supplies will be 'less loose' than this season's - if not exactly 'tight' by historical comparison.Several factors support this view. In the wheat market, analysts are looking for a decline in this year's Russian, Ukrainian and European crops, possibly the USA's too (less sown, more winterkill, droughts etc). As we go to press the trade is also getting excited about a possible major flood loss for India's crop (the world's second largest wheat producer and consumer).How much may wheat production decline? The UN Food & Agriculture Organisation recently suggested the next crop could still get to 720m tonnes - just 7m short of last year's record. That might seem a bit optimistic given all the above factors (more detailon those below). The International Grains Council meanwhile offered a preliminary assessment of 709m (it remains more conservative on last year's too at 719m) while the Canadian Wheat has just come out with the lowest estimate of just 703.4m (versus last year's 724.8m).
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