Tin - Market trends and analysis

摘要

Nearby dated tin has been flipping in and out of contango over the past week, reflecting the more benign trade and investor interest in the metal of late. Further out, the profile of the forward curve continues to soften with the cash to 15-month spread heading towards $100/ tonne backwardation after exceeding $300/ tonne in mid-May. The big surge in Indonesian exports during May, combined with higher Chinese exports of non-ingot tin, and a rise in LME stocks, have all played a role in this shift, showing that there is still material out there. The tonnage being talked of is not huge, but it does appear to be sufficient to more or less cover global demand levels over Q2, and forward orders into Q3. Physical premiums are flat, which also implies a near-balanced market position. Support at current price levels is still being provided by the ICDX contract, which has helped to prevent the LME cash price from slipping much below $23,000/tonne since mid-February, but that threat still persists.