Advanced sensitivity analysis of the impact of the temporal distribution and intensity of rainfall on hydrograph parameters in urban catchments

摘要

Knowledge of the variability of the hydrograph of outflow from urban catchments is highly important for measurements and evaluation of the operation of sewer networks. Currently, hydrodynamic models are most frequently used for hydrograph modeling. Since a large number of their parameters have to be identified, there may be problems at the calibration stage. Hence, sensitivity analysis is used to limit the number of parameters. However, the current sensitivity analytical methods ignore the effect of the temporal distribution and intensity of precipitation in a rainfall event on the catchment outflow hydrograph. This article presents a methodology of constructing a simulator of catchment outflow hydrograph parameters (volume and maximum flow). For this purpose, uncertainty analytical results obtained with the use of the GLUE (generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation) method were used. A novel analysis of the sensitivity of the hydrodynamic catchment models was also developed, which can be used in the analysis of the operation of stormwater networks and underground infrastructure facilities. Using the logistic regression method, an innovative sensitivity coefficient was proposed to study the impact of the variability of the parameters of the hydrodynamic model depending on the distribution of rainfall, the origin of rainfall (on the Chomicz scale), and the uncertainty of the estimated simulator coefficients on the parameters of the outflow hydrograph. The developed model enables the analysis of the impact of the identified SWMM (Storm Water Management Model) parameters on the runoff hydrograph, taking into account local rainfall conditions, which have not been analyzed thus far. Compared with the currently developed methods, the analyses included the impact of the uncertainty of the identified coefficients in the logistic regression model on the results of the sensitivity coefficient calculation. This aspect has not been taken into account in the sensitivity analytical methods thus far, although this approach evaluates the reliability of the simulation results. The results indicated a considerable influence of rainfall distribution and intensity on the sensitivity factors. The greater the intensity and rainfall were, the lower the impact of the identified hydrodynamic model parameters on the hydrograph parameters. Additionally, the calculations confirmed the significant impact of the uncertainty of the estimated coefficient in the simulator on the sensitivity coefficients. In the context of the sensitivity analysis, the obtained results have a significant effect on the interpretation of the relationships obtained. The approach presented in this study can be widely applied at the model calibration stage and for appropriate selection of hydrographs for identification and validation of model parameters. The results of the calculations obtained in this study indicate the suitability of including the origin of rainfall in the sensitivity analysis and calibration of hydrodynamic models, which results from the different sensitivities of models for normal, heavy, and torrential rain types. In this context, it is necessary to first divide the rainfall data by origin, for which analyses will be performed, including sensitivity analysis and calibration. Considering the obtained results of the calculations, at the stage of identifying the parameters of hydrodynamic models and their validation, precipitation conditions should be included because, for the precipitation caused by heavy rainfall, the values of the sensitivity coefficients were much lower than for torrential ones. Taking into account the values of the sensitivity coefficients obtained, the calibration of the models should not only cover episodes with high rainfall intensity, since this may lead to calculation errors at the stage of applying the model in practice (assessment of the stormwater system operating conditions, design of reservoirs and flow control devices, green infrastructure, etc.).