Trends in smoking-related cancer incidence in Tarragona, Spain, 1980-96.

摘要

OBJECTIVES: To analyze recent trends (1980-96) in the incidence of smoking-related cancers among men and women in Tarragona, Spain. METHODS: Data were obtained from a population-based cancer registry. Age-standardized incidence rates were computed. Secular trends, between 1980 and 1996, were estimated using a Poisson regression model. From these figures, age, period, and cohort effects were assessed using the method proposed by Holford. RESULTS: The incidence of all smoking-related cancers combined increased significantly in both sexes. The annual increase was 3.0% in men and 4.5% in women. By sites the annual increase was 4.3% in oral cavity, 5.1% in pancreas, 2.5% in lung, 3.2% in bladder, and 7.7% in kidney cancers among men. Among women the corresponding increments were 7.0% in oral cavity, 7.3% in pancreas, 3.1% in lung, 2.1% in bladder, and 6.9% in kidney cancers. The increasing incidence of lung cancer in women was mostly due to the adenocarcinoma histological type. No increase was observed in esophagus and larynx cancer either in men or women. It was not possible to determine whether the increases are due to a period or cohort effect since the curvature analysis was found to be non-significant. CONCLUSIONS: All smoking-related cancers combined, except larynx and esophagus, are increasing in both sexes. The effect of tobacco, alcohol, and occupational exposure to carcinogens could explain the high rates of larynx, bladder, and upper digestive tract cancer in men. The rising incidence rates of lung cancer observed in younger women indicate a change in recent trends that is consistent with changes observed in smoking prevalence. Unless recent upward smoking trends in young women can be reversed, lung cancer in women will rise rapidly in the next few years. New smoking prevention strategies aimed at Spanish women, especially in the younger age groups, should be developed.