Short-term wind power prediction using an improved grey wolf optimization algorithm with back-propagation neural network

摘要

A short-term wind power prediction method is proposed in this paper with experimental results obtained from a wind farm located in Northeast China. In order to improve the accuracy of the prediction method using a traditional back-propagation (BP) neural network algorithm, the improved grey wolf optimization (IGWO) algorithm has been adopted to optimize its parameters. The performance of the proposed method has been evaluated by experiments. First, the features of the wind farm are described to show the fundamental information of the experiments. A single turbine with rated power of 1500 kW and power generation coefficient of 2.74 in the wind farm was introduced to show the technical details of the turbines. Original wind power data of the whole farm were preprocessed by using the quartile method to remove the abnormal data points. Then, the retained wind power data were predicted and analysed by using the proposed IGWO-BP algorithm. Analysis of the results proves the practicability and efficiency of the prediction model. Results show that the average accuracy of prediction is -11 greater than the traditional BP method. In this way, the proposed wind power prediction method can be adopted to improve the accuracy of prediction and to ensure the effective utilization of wind energy. GRAPHICS .