Areas susceptible to desertification in Brazil and projected climate change scenarios

摘要

Abstract Desertification is considered to be among the most serious environmental problems; it has social, economic, and environmental effects. Identifying areas susceptible to desertification (ASD) can support planning for rational water use because these areas have limited water and are affected by climate variability. This work aimed to identify current and potential ASDs in Brazil to construct future climate change scenarios (FCCSs). Air temperature and precipitation data for Brazil for the baseline period 1990 to 2018 were used to project FCCSs from 2021 to 2100. For the FCCSs, the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (specifically, CMIP6) projections for the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) 4.5 scenario were used. SSP 8.5 was used to calculate the Aridity Index (AI). The results indicated a temperature increase of 3 to 6 °C in Brazil, with a variation in precipitation of approximately − 10.0 to 6.0 by 2100. The projections indicate an increase in areas of dry subhumid climate in Brazil, with a trend of high and moderate susceptibility to desertification, in addition to a significant increase in semi-arid areas, with a trend of high susceptibility to desertification by 2100. Climate change is likely to increase areas with high susceptibility to desertification in Brazil.