Doppler weather radar analysis of short term cyclonic storm

摘要

On the east coast of India, during South-West monsoon period severe cyclonic storms are very rare and if they are short term cyclones then their prediction becomes very difficult due to rapid change in the intensity of the system. Though synoptic observations failed and satellite observations also cannot give decisive picture about such systems, in that case timely warning can not be issued by the weather agencies. Such a system was formed on 19 September, 2006 at about 250 km South-East of Kolkata (India). Very heavy rainfall associated with the system caused several human casualties and extensive damage to the property. According to news agencies, more than 100 people died and a million people became homeless due to heavy rainfall and strong winds associated with the cyclone during 19 September-21, 2006. At 0600 UTC, Doppler Weather radar (DWR) at Kolkata observed initial signatures of the system like a depression. Subsequently at 0900 UTC the observations indicated that the intensification of the system has taken place to a higher stage of deep depression and at about 1200 UTC clear spiral bands with a circular eye recorded by DWR confirmed for a fully developed severe cyclonic storm. The system weakened in to a deep depression at 1630 UTC after the landfall but again became a cyclonic storm at 2100 UTC of 19 September, 2006. Present study establishes that DWR is very useful for prediction of this short term cyclonic storm, its direction of movement and heavy rainfall associated. The maximum radial winds of the magnitude 32 m/s (64 knots/115 km/h) were also recorded by DWR at an altitude of 2.5 km in the eye wall region of the system. The high wind speed and the well defined structure of the cyclone observed by DWR confirmed that the system was a Severe Cyclonic Storm of T number 3.5. Records are available with surface observatories in the region for strong winds of the order of 110 km/h. This study also revealed that an early warning for strong winds and heavy rainfall could have been issued for development of such a short duration tropical cyclone using DWR data well in advance.