Nickel highlights

摘要

During the latter part of July, rumours started circulating in the market that fresh supplies of nickel were en route to LIVE warehouses from Norilsk. LME stocks had fallen as low as 4,128 tonnes, so this news helped to take the heat out of the price, which had seen official three-month nickel hit a record high of 26,755 dollars/tonne on July 17. However, the respite was short-lived, and as of August 11, the market was trading at a new peak above 27,000 dollars/tonne. The ongoing strike at Voisey's Bay has helped to maintain bullish sentiment. Norilsk's deliveries have already started to arrive in LME warehouses (mostly in Rotterdam) and we now must wait to see how much will accumulate on warrant and what the impact will be on prices. One thing is for certain: a large portion of the inflows will be offset by outflows, which are certain to continue at a fair pace. This is evident from the fact that cancelled warrants are still around 60 percent of total stocks and that the global nickel market will be in deficit throughout the rest of the year amid a situation of surging demand and struggling supply. Therefore, whether the tonnage that arrives from Russia turns out to be around 5,000 tonnes, or even as much as 10,000 tonnes, the nickel market will remain exceptionally tight this year. Accordingly, prices will remain well supported at higher levels.