Lead highlights

摘要

Lead has maintained its strong uptrend, even in the face of weakness among the other base metals. Speculative and physical buyers have been active as the market fundamentals improve again. The fact that LME stocks have fallen consistently has helped bullish sentiment. They fell by a net 20,850 tonnes in August alone, and the total has continued lower in September to stand just above the 70,000-tonne mark at the time of writing. Further withdrawals appear likely as cancelled warrants have risen to 12-13 percent in recent days. This should lend valuable impetus to prices now that they are approaching important resistance defined by May's peak of 1,333 dollars/tonne. In fact, prices could fall back as far as 1,280 dollars/tonne without disturbing the uptrend. However, the 1,240 dollars/tonne level is more pivotal, if momentum does turn to test the downside again. That said, the market has not yet shown any such signs of weakness, so further strength or consolidation in the 1,280-1.330 dollars/tonne range seems more likely in the coming weeks.