Thin volumes; big moves ahead?

摘要

The absence of Chinese players from the market due to the Golden Week holiday couldpotentially expose tin, arguably more than other base metals, to some volatile moves.Trading is thin, and given the small scale of the market, it is not difficult to envisagea scenario under which tin could make a break through the $16,000/tonne mark.Looking at tin’s 2015 price chart we can see that the cash contract has essentially beenrange-bound since April. Admittedly, the range has been fairly wide – $14,000-16,000/tonne – but there has been no discernable downward direction or momentum despitemacroeconomics pressures that have dragged most other base metals to new multiyearlows in the interim. Can we now say that tin is almost out of the woods? Our basecase price forecast remains very much in this vein, and we believe that supply sidedevelopments, whether intentional and unintentional, have at least been sufficientlydeep to prevent any further price deterioration.