Nickel highlights

摘要

The whole nickel forward curve is now sitting beneath the $i9,00Q/tonne level, suggesting that the growing sense of malaise in this sector stretches out over the next couple of years. As of yet there is no sign anyway along the forward curve of any great concerns about the looming Indonesian export ban on unprocessed ore, although this potentially represents nickel's one great chance to rally this year. If the ban goes ahead it could promote a shift back to the use of refined nickel and away from nickel pig iron for austenitic stainless steel production in China, for now though, refined nickel units are plentiful and all eyes are on thepoor macro numbers coming out of China and Europe, which are pointing to weaker second-quarter manufacturing. Almost 90% of LME nickel stocks are located in Europe, although it is interesting to note that these absolute tonnages haw been fairly static since January. Where we have been seeing stock builds of late is in Asian warehouses -Singapore, South Korea and Malaysia -presumably due to rerouting of material previously destined for the Chinese market. Nickel prices will continue to struggle in the short term, although as we approach May we may start to see more speculative activity as a play on the Indonesia ban.