Nickel highlights

摘要

With speculation over Indonesia's pending ban on ore exports, and fears of reduced availability from other Asia-Pacific sources, nickel has managed to bounce back to $18,000/tonne. However, any move up from this level would be a little premature, as the anticipated build in stocks is accumulating a little more rapidly than expected. Over the course of 01, LME stocks increased by 5,000 tonnes, dosing out the quarter at a little over 100,000 tonnes, against our Ql stock build estimate of 3,000 tonnes. Inthe past few days, we have started to see stocks coming off in Rotterdam, where most cancelled warrants are held. Nevertheless we remain of the opinion that unless there is an outright ban on ore exports from May 2012, nickel's price floor will be tested yet again. At present, there is speculation that Indonesia could opt instead to raise royalty rates or export taxes on unprocessed ore and coal, which would seem to be a more workable alternative to a blanket ban.