Future perspectives including fuel cells, gas turbines, USC and HGCU the US perspective

摘要

Both the US Department of Energy (DOE) and EPRI are developing models for the evolution of a secure energy future for the USA. Our general views are very similar. However, there are some differences in approach. DOE is concerned with all energy issues in the US future, including electricity, transportation fuels, and the industrial, commercial, and residential energy sectors; EPRI is concerned specifically with the electricity component, principally in the USA, but, as does DOE, also takes a global view. Both organizations take what is now known as a 'Roadmapping' approach. Roadmapping is an example of a 'Top Down' planning method: it involves the specification of a "destination" which the research and development program is aimed towards. In the DOE case, the destination refers to a secure energy future. Typically, Roadmapping is concerned with relatively long time scales. Time scales for different technologies are, of course, very different; in a fast-moving technology such as semiconductors, five to ten years may be a long time. For energy, the equipment is large; planning and construction times are long, and the expected lifetimes of the major components are not less than twenty years, and more typically up to forty years. The time scale that both of our organizations talk about is in the range 20-50 years in the future. The DOE model is called 'Vision 21.' The specific destination for Vision 21 is the technical design bases for near-zero emission fossil fueled energy plants. The EPRI model is called the 'Electricity Technology Roadmap', and more recently we have 'A Vision of the Electricity System of 2020.' An important aspect of the method common to both DOE and EPRI is that the destination is developed by what is called a 'Stakeholder' group: this involves not only the researchers and developers, but also the eventual customers for the technology, and the users of the products. This will include members with environmental and societal concerns. In this paper, we will highlight some of the scenarios that emerge from these models. The first part will concentrate on the Department of Energy program; the latter part on the EPRI view, remembering that we are in close agreement on most aspects.