Mathematical analysis of the transmission dynamics of brucellosis among bison

摘要

In this study, a mathematical model previously proposed for the transmission dynamics of brucellosis among bison was mathematically analyzed. Our qualitative and quantitative findings support the general hypothesis that the infection will vanish from the herd when the basic reproduction number R-0 < 1 and will persist otherwise. A global sensitivity analysis was conducted, and the results of the Sobol indices indicated that the rate of loss of resistance (delta) and the recovery rate. (v) were responsible for most of the variability in the expected number of infectious bison. On the other hand, according to the partial ranked correlation coefficients, the density-dependent reduction in birth (phi), the mortality rate (m) the transmission coefficient (beta), and the recovery rate. (v) exerted very high (and negative) correlations with the number of infectious bison, whereas the rate of loss of resistance (delta) and the calving rate (a) exerted very high (and positive) correlations with the number of infectious bison. Control measures should therefore aim at increasing the magnitude of phi, m, and v and reducing those of delta and a. In addition, experimental studies are needed to precisely estimate the rate of loss of resistance and the recovery rate in order to increase the accuracy of the expected number of infectious bison. Copyright (C) 2014 JohnWiley & Sons, Ltd.