The Drive for Energy Independence in the Next Decades - Fuels of the Future

摘要

The global energy challenge is often defined as the ability to provide access to modern energy for all, and meeting this growing demand whilst reducing the environmental and social implications. With continued economic growth, driven primarily by the developing world, the world's energy needs could increase by 50% within the next 25 years. This growth will be spread across all energy sources and sectors however the transport sector will be the natural home for the significant increase in oil demand. Although modelling would indicate that the use of alternative fuels will increase, it will not be enough to compensate for the growing demand for transportation fuels for the foreseeable future, and therefore both 'conventional' and 'difficult or unconventional' fossil hydrocarbon based fuels will be pivotal for the foreseeable future. This increase in oil demand brings with it a number of concerns: 1. Are there enough resources to meet projected demand? 2. Are the resources available to all markets or is there regional dependence? 3. What is the investment cost to bring the unconventional fossil hydrocarbons to market? 4. What are the increased environmental impacts, in particular air pollution and climate change Increasing demand, energy security and climate change concern are the main drivers for the development of alternative fuels. People are increasingly concerned about getting the energy they need as well as the financial and environmental costs. They are worried that they face a future of growing energy shortages, rising prices and international conflict for supplies. These concerns about energy are legitimate, but there are ways to mitigate these challenges. Fossil hydrocarbons are not running out. Conventional oil is expected to last for quite some years yet at current use rates. At present, on average only about one third of the original oil in place is recovered at the economic limit, and high oil prices are advancing the use of more costly extraction technologies that allow additional production of conventional oil. In addition to this, conventional oil and gas account for only a small proportion of the world's total fossil hydrocarbon resources. Technologies are continuously being developed and applied to access more difficult resources including heavy viscous oil, oil sands and shale's etc, which are significant in comparison to those of conventional oil. There is sufficient unconventional oil to meet demand certainly within the next century, if the technical and economic hurdles associated with them are overcome, however the geographical location of these resources in relation to areas of demand growth and changing habits will drive increased oil trade flows around the globe, and a general trend towards oil import dependence: Not Independence. Diversification of hydrocarbon feeds for fuel options will increase the robustness of the transport fuel market to future energy supply uncertainties. The integrated development of unconventional oils and alternative resources to provide advanced fuels along with new power trains will be an enabler to meet both the future environmental and supply challenges. Shell has more than 100 years of experience in developing innovative new fuels and bringing them to market. We have one of the broadest fuel portfolios in the industry and are investing in technologies and partnerships that we hope will make us the leading provider of the next generation of fuels including cleaner conventional fuels, GTL, biofuels and Hydrogen.