Methods for joint inference from multiple data sources for improved estimates of population size and survival rates

摘要

Critical conservation decisions often hinge on estimates of population size, population growth rate, and survival rates, but as a practical matter it is difficult to obtain enough data to provide precise estimates. Here we discuss Bayesian methods for simultaneously drawing on the information content from multiple sorts of data to get as much precision as possible for the estimates. The basic idea is that an underlying population model can connect the various sorts of observations, so this can be elaborated into a joint likelihood function for joint estimation of the respective parameters. The potential for improved estimates derives from the potentially greater effective sample size of the aggregate of data, even though some of the data types may only bear directly on a subset of the parameters. The achieved improvement depends on specifics of the interactions among parameters in the underlying model, and on the actual content of the data. Assuming the respective data sets are unbiased, notwithstanding the fact that they may be noisy, we may gauge the average improvement in the estimates of the parameters of interest from the reduction, if any, in the standard deviations of their posterior marginal distributions. Prospective designs may be evaluated from analysis of simulated data. Here this approach is illustrated with an assessment of the potential value in various ways of merging mark-resight and carcass-survey data for the Florida manatee, as could be made possible by various modifications in the data collection protocols in both programs.