The manufacturing forecast: It's been some time coming, and early signs may have been viewed suspiciously, but the manufacturing recovery across the world is rolling. Andrew Allcock has been considering the data

摘要

A visit to the home page of NIC Research (www.ntc-research.com) shows that the three of the four main global manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Indexes - UK, US, Japan - have been above the 50 levels since spring 2003. And the fourth - the Eurozone -went above 50 last autumns, with Germany's PMI staying at a three-year high in January A value above 50 indicates growth. All four PMIs had 'headed south'-below 50 - in July 2002 and had stayed there for the duration until their respective 2003 pick-ups. The most dramatic reversal of fortunes has been seen in the US. From around 46 in spring 2003, the index has climbed to over 63, according to January 2004 data. And second in the Northern Hemisphere comes the UK, having reached 56. Putting this all together, NTC Research offered this on 3 February:"The Global Manufacturing PMI registered 57.1 in January, its highest level in four years and a figure indicative of the further marked improvement of operating conditions." And the CBFs most recent Quarterly Trends survey heralded the end of the manufacturing recession in the last week of January. It also trumpeted "the strongest growth in total orders for over seven years and the strongest growth in output for over eight years".