Technology Forecasting PART 1: PURPOSE OF FORECASTING

摘要

The major purpose of forecasting in general for engineering managers is to allow then to move towards anticipatory thinking, within themselves, within their groups, and eventually within their overall business organization. Anticipatory thinking provides the mechanisms to move away from reactionary responses to change. It uses forecasting techniques to study potential futures, and categorize them as possible, probable, and preferable. Once a preferable future scenario is identified, then the organization can take actionable steps to try and shape the future towards the preferable outcome. In this way, the organization is becoming proactive, not merely passively being along for the ride. I believe that this is the single most significant impact to organizations that begin to use forecasting over those that don't - they are aware of potential futures, both good and bad, and by thinking and planning for them they are netter prepared to be successful no matter which future comes to be.