Doubt and certainty in fishery science: Are we really headed for a global collapse of stocks?

摘要

A recent article discusses the consequences for fisheries of the relationship between taxonomic diversity, productivity and the resistance of marine ecosystems to disturbance; this study is based on an examination of historical catch and abundance data, together with experimental studies and surveys. It leads the authors to suggest that all sea fisheries could collapse by the middle of this century unless action is taken to prevent this from happening: this extrapolation has been taken seriously by the news media and the general public, though not by fisheries scientists. The authors draw what appear to be inappropriate conclusions from experimental studies, and from public data bases of global catch and taxonomic diversity. Nevertheless, the doubtful conclusions reached by the authors are less important to the proper functioning of fisheries science than is the apparent failure of the peer review process in the influential journal in which the results were published.