Observational oceanographers challenge their modelling colleagues

摘要

Since 2006 there has been a biennial conference on the theme of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), organised jointly by the NERC RAPID-AMOC programme (RAPID = rapid climate change) and the US-CLIVAR AMOC Science Team (CLIVAR = the World Climate Research Programme’s Core Project on Climate and Ocean: Variability, Predictability and Change). The latest of these biannual conferences was held in Bristol in the summer of 2015. Some presentations of model studies at the meeting suggested a growing confidence in the capability of models to predict future changes in the AMOC. These studies were based on comparisons of hindcast simulations with time-series of historical data. But could models make predictions for the future? The RAPID 26° N team decided to throw down the gauntlet! What started as light-hearted competition soon became the stimulus for some interesting science.