Impacts of Changing Hardwood Lumber Consumption and Price on Stumpage and Saw log Prices in Ohio

摘要

In the early 2000s, increasing US furniture imports preceded declining US hardwood lumber demand and price. In the summer of 2002, however, hardwood lumber prices started to increase as demand by construction industries increased. By the mid-2000s, hardwood lumber prices hit all-time highs. Lumber prices hit all-time highs for red oak (Quercus spp.), white oak, and cherry (Prunus serotina Ehrh.) in 2004, soft maple (Acer spp.) in 2005, and yellow-poplar (Liriodendron tulipifera L.) and hard maple in 2006. The declines in construction that began in 2006 and reduced lumber exports after 2006 caused prices of all hardwood species to hit low points in 2008 or 2009. In this study, we examined changes in the demand and price for hardwood lumber and assessed how these changes corresponded with stumpage and sawlog prices in Ohio. Stumpage and sawlog prices declined in a manner to that of lumber prices from the mid to late 2000s but were less correlated with lumber from 2009 to 2012. These patterns appeared different from those in previous recession/recovery periods. In past recessions, stumpage prices were less sensitive to economic decline than lumber prices but highly correlated to increasing lumber prices in the recovery years. Saw log and lumber prices also were generally well correlated coming out of past recessions.