An experimental analysis of the behavior of forestry decision-makers - the example of timing in sales decisions.

摘要

Despite the existing literature, it is still unclear whether and to what extent the behavior of forestry decision-makers can be predicted by means of normative models. To date, the actual decision-making behavior regarding logging has hence been only derived from the analysis of data gathered in surveys or on the basis of aggregated data. Currently, no studies exist that compare the individual timber harvesting behavior with a normative benchmark. The present study experimentally examines the behavior of decision-makers from forestry organizations by means of the example of selling a one-off property with a normative benchmark derived using the Jevons-Fisher rule. We investigate if the intuitive behavior shown by forestry decision-makers in an incentive-compatible experiment for the sale of a one-off property can be approximated to the optimal behavior according to the Jevons-Fisher rule. For determining the normative benchmark, the decision-maker's risk attitude measured by a Holt and Laury lottery is explicitly taken into account. The results reveal that, on average, participants decide earlier for selling the property than what would be expected according to the normative benchmark. This illustrates the importance of experimental investigations in order to better understand the decision-making behavior in a forestry setting. Furthermore, the findings indicate that risk-averse participants, males, participants who completed a forestry apprenticeship as well as participants with an economic-related educational background sell the property earlier. Older participants, participants holding a university degree, and participants interested in participating in further experiments sell the property rather later. Moreover, with progressive repetition of the property sale experiment, participants decide to sell the property earlier.