2015 Merchandising Outlook:POTENTIAL INCREASE IN PLANTED ACREAGE WILL AFFECT THE ENTIRE GRAIN MARKET

摘要

Hueber: In the grain markets, I have a predominantly neutral stance right now. I do believe we finally have transitioned from a demand-driven market to a supply market, which means that most market swings will be production-related and most likely weather-driven. Historically, those kinds of moves are generally short-lived but, of course, can be violent.We will have the official acreage estimates on March 31, but the general consensus seems to be that we could lose 1 to 3 million acres of corn this season, and if correct, most likely would project a reduced ending stock figure for 2015-16. While this does not mean necessarily a critical situation for corn, lower supplies should translate at least into a stable market even with trend-line yields, but of course, a weather issue could change that picture quickly.